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¿Cómo seleccionar los predictores de mi modelo?

Determining which predictors should be included in a model is becoming one of the most critical questions as data are becoming increasingly high-dimensional. For example:

• In business, companies are now more proficient at storing and accessing large amounts of information on their customers and products. Large databases are often mined to discover crucial relationships (Lo 2002).
• In pharmaceutical research, chemists can calculate thousands of predictors using quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) methodology. As an example, one popular software suite calculates 17 flavors of a compound’s surface area. These predictors can be categorical or continuous and can easily number in the tens of thousands.
• In biology, a vast array of biological predictors can be measured at one time on a sample of biological material such as blood. RNA expression profiling microarrays can measure thousands of RNA sequences at once. Also, DNA microarrays and sequencing technologies can comprehensively determine the genetic makeup of a sample, producing a wealth of numeric predictors. These technologies have rapidly advanced over time, offering ever larger quantities of information.

From a practical point of view, a model with less predictors may be more interpretable and less costly especially if there is a cost to measuring the predictors. Statistically, it is often more attractive to estimate fewer parameters. Also, some models may be negatively affected by non-informative predictors.

Some models are naturally resistant to non-informative predictors. Tree and rule-based models, MARS and the lasso, for example, intrinsically conduct feature selection. For example, if a predictor is not used in any split during the construction of a tree, the prediction equation is functionally independent of the predictor.

An important distinction to be made in feature selection is that of supervised and unsupervised methods. When the outcome is ignored during the elimination of predictors, the technique is unsupervised. In each case, the outcome is independent of the filtering calculations. For supervised methods, predictors are specifically selected for the purpose of increasing accuracy or to find a subset of predictors to reduce the complexity of the model. Here, the outcome is typically used to quantify the importance of the predictors.

The issues related to each type of feature selection are very different, and the literature for this topic is large. Subsequent sections highlight several critical topics including the need for feature selection, typical approaches, and common pitfalls.

Do you need more information to compute this performance evaluators? What other coefficients are used to evaluate the performance of a model?

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